Earnings Reaction · Q3 2026October 27, 2026 · reported after the close · call Wed Oct 28, 10:00 AM ET
RenasantRNST · NYSE
Record loan production and 11.5% annualized loan growth paid for by a $13M provision and $491M of borrowings — EPS missed by eight cents, the margin slipped six basis points, and the stock did not care. For a Southeast regional at 10× and 1.65× tangible book, growth with stable credit is the whole story.
Last
$41.75
+0.4% after hours (close $41.58) · 52-wk $33.04–$44.54
Fair value (prob.-wtd)
$43
+3% vs AH · base $44
Q3 actual
$0.86 EPS
Street $0.94 · provision $13.3M vs $3.8M in Q2
NII (FTE)
$228.6M
+$0.9M q/q · NIM 3.77% (−6 bp) · adj. NIM 3.58% (−3 bp)
Loans
+$556M q/q
+11.5% annualized; record production
Deposits
−$73M q/q
public funds −$215M; borrowings +$491M
Credit
NPL 0.89% · NCO 0.20%
16 bp of NCO from one credit; criticized 2.50% (2.66%)
Valuation
10.6× / 1.65× TBV
FY27E $3.93 · TBV $25.29 · CET1 10.92% · new $175M buyback
Earnings reaction — an eight-cent miss on growth-driven provision, stock flat. Net income $78.9M, EPS $0.86 vs. $0.94 consensus and $0.94 in Q2. The miss is almost entirely the provision: $13.3M ($10.1M loans + $3.2M unfunded) vs. $3.8M in Q2, which management attributes to loan growth — loans +$555.9M in the quarter, 11.5% annualized, on record production and lower payoffs. Net interest income (FTE) $228.6M, up $0.9M q/q; NIM 3.77%, −6 bp; adjusted NIM (ex-accretion) 3.58%, −3 bp; loan yield held at 6.31% and deposit cost rose 1 bp to 1.97%. The funding side is the soft spot: deposits −$73M with public funds −$215M, and short-term borrowings +$491M at 4.86% to fund the loan growth — the cost-of-funds line is why NIM fell with yields flat. Fee income −$1.9M on mortgage (rate locks $521M, −$91M; gain-on-sale 1.75%). Expenses −$1.2M; adjusted efficiency 54.7%. Credit improved: NPLs 0.89% (0.97%), criticized 2.50% (2.66%), coverage 169%; NCOs 0.20% annualized with 16 bp from a single credit. Capital: CET1 10.92%, TBV $25.29 (flat; AOCI −$57M on the 10-year at 5%), $42.6M repurchased at $41.05, and a new $175M authorization (~4.6% of the cap). Why flat: regional-bank investors read a provision for growth differently from a provision for losses, and the credit metrics all improved; the stock at 10.6× and 1.65× TBV with 6.8% short was priced for the miss. The question the call has to answer is whether 11.5% loan growth funded with borrowings is the right trade at a 5.00% 10-year.
What the quarter said
| Line | Q3 26 | Q2 26 | Q3 25 | Read |
|---|
| Diluted EPS | $0.86 | $0.94 | $0.63 | Adj. $0.86 vs $0.77 y/y; Street $0.94 |
| NII FTE ($M) | 228.6 | 227.7 | 228.1 | Flat; loan growth offset by funding cost |
| NIM FTE | 3.77% | 3.83% | 3.85% | Adj. 3.58% (3.61%) |
| Provision ($M) | 13.3 | 3.8 | 10.5 | Growth-driven per mgmt |
| Loans HFI ($B) | 19.75 | 19.20 | 19.03 | +11.5% annualized; C&I +$88M, CRE +$250M |
| Deposits ($B) | 21.63 | 21.70 | 21.42 | Public funds −$215M; NIB 23.1% |
| Short-term borrowings ($M) | 806 | 315 | 606 | +$491M at 4.86% |
| NPL / criticized | 0.89% / 2.50% | 0.97% / 2.66% | 0.90% / 3.22% | Improving |
| TBV / share | $25.29 | $25.34 | $23.77 | AOCI −$57M on rates |
| Buyback | $42.6M | — | — | New $175M program |
The balance-sheet math: $556M of loan growth was funded by $491M of borrowings and $147M of cash, not deposits. At 4.86% on the borrowings against a 6.31% loan yield the spread is positive but thin, and it is why NIM fell while asset yields held. The core-deposit growth management cites in the quote is real (consumer and commercial grew) but was more than offset by public-fund seasonality. CRE non-owner-occupied grew $250M to $6.37B — the category regional-bank bears watch — while criticized loans in aggregate fell.
The one metric that matters
Deposit growth against loan growth. A regional growing loans at 11.5% annualized with flat deposits is borrowing to grow; the market tolerates that for a quarter or two at stable credit, not as a model. The call has to show Q4 deposit growth (public funds return seasonally) and a NIM that stabilizes in the 3.70s. Secondary: whether the provision run-rate is now $10–13M a quarter (growth) or reverts to $4–8M.
Where it touches the threads
- Rates. A 5.00% 10-year and a Fed at hold-or-hike is good for asset yields and bad for AOCI (−$57M this quarter), mortgage (locks −$91M) and deposit competition. RNST is asset-sensitive enough that a hike helps NII; a hold with rising deposit costs squeezes it.
- Regional-bank credit is the week's quiet test (UMBF, FFBC, TRMK, NBHC also reported); RNST's improving criticized and NPL ratios with CRE at 32% of loans is a clean data point for the group.
- Material weakness in internal control (disclosed in the 10-K, March 2) remains an overhang until remediated — it is in the forward-looking statements again this quarter.
Valuation and scenarios
At $41.75 the stock is ~$3.8B of market cap (90.4M shares), 10.6× FY27E ($3.93) and 1.65× tangible book ($25.29); book value is $42.41, so the stock trades at book. Southeast regionals of this size have ranged 1.3–2.0× TBV and 9–13× earnings. Fair values are independent house estimates on FY27 earnings and tangible book.
Bull25% probability
$52+25%
- Deposits re-grow in Q4; NIM stabilizes 3.75%+
- Loan growth 8–10% with provision normalizing; EPS $4.15
- 12.5× / 2.0× TBV — the growth regional multiple
Base50% probability
$44+5%
- Loan growth moderates to 6–8%; NIM 3.70–3.75%
- Provision $8–10M/qtr; EPS ~$4.00
- 11× / 1.7× TBV — buyback supports
Bear25% probability
$33-21%
- Funding cost keeps rising; NIM below 3.65%
- A CRE credit event; provision $15M+/qtr
- 9× / 1.3× TBV — toward the 52-wk low
Probability-weighted fair value
$43
vs. after-hours $41.75
+3%
Fairly priced. The buyback and the credit metrics are the floor; the funding mix is the ceiling.
What to watch
- Q4 deposit growth and public-fund inflows on the 10 AM ET call
- NIM guide and deposit beta with the Fed on hold
- Provision run-rate — growth or credit
- CRE non-owner-occupied commentary at $6.4B
- Buyback execution of the $175M at ~book value
- Material weakness remediation timeline
The desk read: a growth quarter dressed as a miss. The market read it correctly in after hours — flat — and the call decides whether the funding mix is temporary. Levels: $40 and $38 below; $42.54 (June high-water) and $44.54 (high) above.
Sources
- Renasant Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715072/000071507226000084/exhibit991_rnstx3q2026earn.htm
- Earnings deck, Exhibit 99.2 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715072/000071507226000084/rnstq32026earningsdeck_f.htm
- Pre-print consensus: Briefing/Schwab workbook. Prices and after-hours quotes: Schwab market data, Oct 27, 2026 ~4:15 PM CT.
For educational/entertainment purposes. Sikuli Research publishes independent opinions; nothing here is investment advice, a research report under FINRA rules, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Fair-value scenarios are the author's assumptions and may change without notice. Prices are as of the time stated and should be confirmed against a live feed. The author may hold positions, long or short, in securities mentioned.